FORESIGHT, Issue 36

Description

Winter 2015

Special Feature: Internal and External Collaboration

• Internal and External Collaboration: The Keys to Demand-Supply Integration by John Mello
  Effective demand-supply integration (DSI) is an increasingly acute problem in industry, prompted by pressure from large retailers on manufacturers to provide higher levels of service while reducing inventory costs. Meanwhile, the advent of online ordering has further complicated matters by creating multiple distribution options. John Mello examines how companies are currently using internal and external collaboration to improve demand supply integration, thus achieving increased customer service with reduced inventory.
• Commentary: The Keys to Demand-Supply Integration Extension Beyond Fast-Moving Consumer Goods by Tonya Boone and Ram Ganeshan

Articles

1. 1. Improving Forecast Quality in Practice by Robert Fildes and Fotios Petropoulos
      Robert and Fotios discuss the results of their important new survey on the key elements for improving the quality of the forecasting function. A lot more is involved here than software and statistical methodology; it’s also about removing organizational impediments, developing appropriate performance benchmarks and motivational incentives, and improving data reliability and flow within the organization.
      Commentary by Mark Moon
   2. Financial Crises and Forecasting Failures by Roy Batchelor
      A 2014 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report examined the world economies’ 2007-09 financial crises to establish their causes and impacts, as well as the initiatives governments and central banks undertook to deal with them. Roy Batchelor, Foresight’s Financial Forecasting Editor, expands on the IMF volume to glean the implications for our forecasting models and how they need to adapt to changing reality.
      Commentary by Jeffrey Mishlove
      In his accompanying commentary, Jeff Mishlove takes issue with Roy’s critique of the IMF’s expansionist policy prescriptions, pointing out the macroeconomic success of these initiatives in the U.S. relative to the doldrums in the EU economies.
   3. Always in Season: Giving Due Respect to Seasonality in Monthly Forecasting by Roy Pearson
      Overlooking the often dominant role of seasonality in short-term forecasting can lead to confusion in interpreting sales changes and a lost opportunity to reduce forecast error. Roy explains the seasonality puzzle and how to improve forecasting performance and credibility by properly accounting for seasonal effects.
   4. Strategic Technology and Social Forecasts by William Halal and Owen Davies
      TechCast Global – www.TechCastGlobal.com – is a system that generates forecasts for technological innovations and major social trends, examining the impact on business and individuals. Its forecasts are derived from the collective judgment of 130 expert forecasters, scientists, and academics from a wide variety of fields. This article presents a sampling of the current TechCast forecasts for the next several decades.