FORESIGHT, Issue 27

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Fall 2012

Special Feature: Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts?

  • Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts? by M. Sinan Gonul, Dilek Onkal, and Paul Goodwin 
    Mistrust is a serious problem for organizations. So much has been written about functional biases and misaligned incentives that one wonders how anyone can trust a forecast provider. Well, now we have some studies that shed new light on the factors that can build or impede trust in forecasting. In this article, Sinan, Dilek, and Paul discuss the latest research findings on the steps you can take to improve trust and reduce dysfunctional behavior in the forecast function. Their conclusions offer a check list of steps to eliminate or at least minimize the element of mistrust in your forecasts.
  • Commentaries:
    • It’s About the Quality of Interaction – Lauge Valentin
    • The Forecaster’s Capability and Empowerment – John Parks
    • Trust in Forecasting, and the Myth of Neutrality – John Unger
    • The View Across the Supply Chain – Ram Ganeshan
  • Fostering Communication that Builds Trust by Joe Smith and Simon Clarke
    The Fall 2012 issue of Foresight contained the special feature article “Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts?” by M. Sinan Gonül, Dilek Önkal, and Paul Goodwin. In that piece, the authors identified the essential ingredients of trust in a forecaster as goodwill, competence (with humility), transparency, and communication. Now Joe and Simon draw on their own experiences to expand on the key role of effective communication in establishing trust.

Articles

  1. Exponential Smoothing: The Workhorse of Business Forecasting by Eric Stellwagen 
    Foresight is pleased to introduce a new series of tutorials on tried and true methods for business forecasting. These tutorials are designed to be nontechnical overviews of important methodologies, focused on providing insights into how the methods work and illustrating their strengths and limitations. Our hope is that they will enable forecasters to make more informed use of the software that supports the forecasting function. We lead off with Eric Stellwagen’s tutorial on Exponential Smoothing, the most fundamental of our time-series approaches to forecasting.
  2. S&OP Principles: The Foundation for Success by Robert A. Stahl and Thomas F. Wallace 
    Bob Stahl and Tom Wallace have written the book – indeed, many of them – on successfully implementing Sales and Operations Planning in businesses. Here they summarize key takeaways, offering organizations a checklist on the elements of proper implementation and the tactics for overcoming pushback from organizational inertia.
  3. Executive S&OP Implementation – Do It Right by Amy Mansfield 
    Amy Mansfield draws on her successful experiences in S&OP implementation to provide guidance on how to do it right—and offers the hopeful reminder that successful implementation is not the finish line, but only the beginning of a better informed, more energized and aligned organization.
  4. Book Reviews by Stephan Kolassa {Free article} 
    Principles of Business Forecasting
    by Keith Ord & Robert Fildes
    Forecasting: Principles and Practice by Rob Hyndman & George Athanasopoulos

Additional information

Content

Complete Issue, Special Feature, Special Feature 1, Special Feature 2, Article 1, Article 2, Article 3, Article 4, Article 5, Article 6, Article 7, Article 8, Article 9, Free Article, Free Article 1, Free Article 2, Free Article 3, Free Article 4