FORESIGHT, Issue 26

Description

Summer 2012

Special Feature

Forecastability

• Forecastability: A New Method for Benchmarking and Driving Improvement by Sean Schubert
• Forecaster in the Field: an interview with Sean Schubert

Articles

1. Regrouping to Improve Seasonal Product Forecasting by Maryam Mohammadipour, John Boylan, and Aris Syntetos 
   Forecasting seasonal products can be difficult when the products are fairly new or highly variable. The Spring 2007 issue of Foresight contained a special feature on modeling seasonality in short time series. The articles addressed the issues of minimum sample size requirements and surveyed the options for applying the seasonal patterns that are in aggregates (e.g. product group) as well as in analogous product data to the individual product at hand. Now, Maryam, John, and Aris show specifically how to form product-group seasonal indexes and explain how to determine when group indexes will be superior to individual indexes for forecasting the individual products. They also make the important point that there may be better ways to form product groups for seasonal forecasting than a company’s standard product groupings. AND
2. Hemlines and the Economy: Which Goes Down First? by Marjolein van Baardwijk, Philip Hans Franses 
   Women’s hemlines are falling to ankle length this year. Could this mean that another recession is in the works? Not at all, say the authors; rather, the legend that hemlines are a lead indicator of the economy is apparently backwards. Hemlines, in fact, appear to lag behind economic activity by three years, so it seems the current drop in hemlines is a reaction to the most recent economic recession.
3. Forecasting Software: Improving the User’s Experience by Stavros Asimakopoulos 
   Forecasting software applications now include functionality for virtually any forecasting process and any size business. While the functionality may be available to meet varied forecasting needs, there continues to be a lack of adequate attention paid to usability and the user experience (UX). In this article, Stavros Asimakopoulos discusses the problems users encounter with forecasting software and how these problems can drain organizational resources. Stavros recommends specific software characteristics and features that result in enhanced usability.
4. Reliable Forecasts of the 2012 Presidential Election by Randy Jones; and Does Obama Keep the Keys to the White House? by Allan Lichtman
   Forget the polls. Forget the pundits. President Barack Obama is virtually certain to gain another four years in the White House come November. This positive outlook for the president remains the verdict of the Keys to the White House, a historically based prediction system that has correctly forecast the results of the popular vote of all seven presidential elections from 1984 to 2008.
5. The Forecasting Meeting: Questions From on High by Alec Finney
   Every month, Fred the Forecaster, Colin the Controller, and Stan the Supply Guy get together to discuss current forecasting problems… sorry, forecasting “opportunities.” This month…
6. Book Review by Ira Sohn 
   Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think, by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler