FORESIGHT, Issue 22

Description

Summer 2011

Articles

1. Executive S&OP and The Cycle of Resolution: Resolving Conflict to Align Human Energy by Robert Stahl and Stewart Levine, JD 
   In previous columns Bob Stahl has written that success in using S&OP comes not only from the proper application of tools, techniques, and processes (the hard stuff), but from the behavior of people with the willingness to get tough issues out in the open (the soft stuff). Now he and Stewart Levine team up to discuss the Cycle of Resolution model for promoting the behaviors required to turn conflict into collaboration, achieving a shared vision of the future.
2. Forecasting Tools: Have They Upgraded the Forecasting Process? by Joe Smith and Simon Clarke
   Welcome to the second round of “Joe and Simon Sez.” Joe is Joe Smith, Director of Revenue Management at Dean Foods’ southeast business unit, and Simon is Simon Clarke, Director of Forecasting at Coca-Cola Refreshments. Their first go-round, “Who Should Own the Forecasting Process?” (Winter 2011 issue), turned into verbal fisticuffs with several potential knockout punches thrown and wounds inflicted. But on the subject of forecasting tools, the focus of this installment, amity seems to prevail. Joe and Simon concur that tools have improved opportunities for the forecaster, while at the same time imposing new challenges. Their word to the wise is to avoid fixating on the tool as a solution: it’s people, not tools that make the process work.
3. A Forecasting Support System for Temperature-Controlled Transport by Wilfried Despagne 
   Wilfried Despagne describes a Web-based forecasting support system, “Horizons,” that was designed for a French subsidiary of a European temperature-controlled-transport group. The major challenge was the adaptation of the system to more than 70 different transportation hubs, requiring a significant level of automation and a highly transparent user interface. This article considers the key components of the design and implementation of Horizons, and the factors that led to its successful deployment. Wilfried’s work demonstrates that a good forecasting-support system requires much more than development of forecasting models: A user-friendly graphical interface, a supportive organizational culture, and the know-how of the decision-makers all play a critical role.
4. Using the International Futures Global Modeling System-(IFs) for Alternative Scenarios by the Numbers by Roy Pearson
   In this column, Roy Pearson examines a valuable new Web-based application – the IFs model – that enables forecasters to deal with the future impacts of changes in their organization’s external environment. These can be product or market changes, but technological, demographic, social, political, and environmental changes as well. Of course, no business has the time, budget, and expertise to build a global model of the scope and size necessary to quantify the effects of all of these changes, especially for decades down the road. So the IFs model offers a way for you to map future alternative paths of major concern to you or your organization, providing a quantitative foundation for focusing discussions and planning. And it’s free to the public.
5. Book Review by Ira Sohn
   The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future by Laurence C. Smith