The Spring 2019 issue of Foresight—number 53—kicks off with a special feature, Are You a Victim of Your Models? Here Tom Willemain, a longtime contributor to the journal, ponders why modeling and optimization algorithms haven’t displaced “gut instinct” in supply-chain forecasting as much as one would expect, given their penetration in kindred fields such as finance. The theme is more fully developed in the several commentaries that follow, by Chris Gray, Paul Goodwin, David Orrell, Henry Canitz, John Boylan, and Aris Syntetos.
AND ELSEWHERE IN THIS ISSUE…
Azhar Iqbal is Director of Wells Fargo Securities LLC, which has won awards for forecasting of macro and financial variables. Dr. Iqbal and former Wells Fargo Chief Economist John Silvia present their Ten Commandments of Economic Forecasting and explain how these guide the forecasting process at Wells Fargo.
A feature of Foresight’s Winter 2019 issue was Spyros Makridakis and colleagues’ article on “Predicting Medical Risks and Appreciating Uncertainty.” After summarizing the key points of that article, we offer commentaries from John Ioannidis in Medical Science and Practice: Does Anyone Want to Fix Them? and Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Medicine and Risk Transfer, both of which enumerate serious shortcomings of medical practice. We can appreciate these equally from the perspectives of forecasters and patients.
Shaun Snapp then discusses some organizational realities of forecast-error measurement, and argues that to drive forecast-accuracy improvement we need to make Monetized Forecast-Error Comparisons, for which he offers a new, free application.
The Spring 2019 issue concludes with a new section on artificial intelligence. Following our 2017-18 five-part article from Spyros Makridakis—Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence— Larry Vanston presents another voice on this issue, concentrating on where his thinking parts ways with Spyros’s predictions. Then, after giving Spyros an opportunity to respond, we feature an interview with Larry in this issue’s installment of Forecaster in the Field.
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